USL League One: 2025 Playoff Permutations

Fort Wayne, set to join USL League One in 2026, released its brand identity this week, and while simple, it’s quite elegant. However, they’ll have to sit on the sideline this year as the 2025 regular season ends this weekend, and the playoff jumble is solved.

While 7 of the 8 playoff spots have been clinched, there are still teams jockeying for a home pole position, that final ticket to the post season, and even the Player’s Shield is up for grabs.

So, let’s take a look, first, at what needs to happen for One Knox to win their first Player’s Shield… first and foremost, win, and they’ve done it. One Knoxville SC lead Chattanooga Red Wolves at the top of the table by just 2 points and can clinch their first piece of hardware as a club with a win over former league champions, Greenville Triumph SC.

Making the playoffs has been Greenville’s baseline of success since their inception - this is the first time in 7 years the Reedy River Riot won’t watch them in the post-season. However, they aren’t going to go out easy and will give the would be Player’s Shield winners a run for their money. A draw could still do for One Knox, however, because even if Red Wolves win, there is still a 5 goal separation in the ol’ Goal Differential to overcome. The two also split the regular season matchups with a win each, but One Knox have an aggregate 2-1 lead. If Chattanooga should lose, then none of that matters.

Juan Obregón Jr of Westchester SC leads the Golden Boot race with 17 goals.

Chattanooga Red Wolves finished second bottom last year and really, if Central Valley Fuego didn’t have a worse GD (-24) than the Red Wolves (-20) then they would have been the worst team in the league. So, what Scott Mackenzie has done in his first season at the helm is nothing short of a soccer miracle. Chattanooga were atop the league table for a good portion of the season and even if they don’t win the league, their supporters will be elated to see their team do so well after two years of finishing well outside of the playoffs.

The Red Wolves host the new worst team in the league, Westchester SC, who some thought would do well for an expansion side - they sure spent enough to compete right out of the gate. Juan Obregón Jr made the move over from Charlotte and has been worth his weight in gold, almost literally, as he leads the Golden Boot race on 17 goals from 85 shots - this will be his last chance to add to that tally for the season. Chattanooga may not be willing to settle for that draw and be content with a home game, however, because right behind them by just 2 points are Spokane Velocity.

Spokane were in the race for the Player’s Shield until earlier this week when they ran into the Portland Hearts of Pine buzzsaw at Fitzgerald. Had they been able to secure even a draw they could have gone into their final game of the regular season with even an ounce of hope. Velocity have won just 3 of their last 11 games down the stretch and while they were quite solid to start the season, they look wobbly now. They head off to face the team who beat them in the Playoff Final last season, Union Omaha and Los Buhos are in the middle of an 11-game unbeaten streak.

Velocity aren’t at risk of losing their spot at number three, they just might not be able to secure that number two spot if they can’t pull themselves together. What’s scary for Spokane is the loss of momentum going into the post-season. Depending on results further down, they may end up having to face that Portland team again…

Hunter Morse of Portland Hearts of Pine leads the league with 81 saves and has 6 clean sheets.

Union Omaha have the most to lose in this game - they only have a 1 point lead over FC Naples and even a draw can’t clinch that home playoff spot without needing Naples to slip up and FC Naples are going to be under a bit of pressure from visitors Charlotte Independence. The Jacks are just inside the frame of the playoff picture, but their own position is precarious. There are two teams remaining who have not been eliminated and if Charlotte fail to secure three points on the road, they may be in trouble.

One of those on the outside, looking in, is AV Alta who have the dubious pleasure of visiting fellow league freshmen, Portland Hearts of Pine, this weekend. Currently, Portland look to have a road game in the playoffs, however, they will be looking to leapfrog FC Naples and Union Omaha to take that 4th spot and transform it into a home game at Fitzgerald. AV Alta are 2 points out of the playoffs, but know a win puts pressure on Charlotte and could get them into the post season.

The other team outside the playoffs, but looking in, is Forward Madison - the Mingos have a worse GD (-8) than AV Alta (-5) and will not only have to focus on the three points, but trying to win by more than one goal. The added pressure for them is that this is the final installment of this season’s Henny Derby and even though they have won the two prior meetings this season, this is being played in none other than City Stadium - the Kickers and the Red Army would absolutely love to play spoilers.

Los Buhos’ Charlie Ostrem has 10 assists and 52 chances created.

Lastly, we have South Georgia Tormenta FC, who, with a win and a pair of losses from the two teams immediately above them, could move up to 5th - it would still mean an away game to start with, but in theory, it pits them against a slightly less challenging 4th seed. 2022 Playoff Champions, Tormenta, have done well to keep their noses above water - the ibises have had a few decent results, a few great player performances, and finish the season with a positive Goal Differential. They host Texoma FC, who have not really been a threat to anybody this season. Their focus should be on controlling the ball, managing minutes, and minimizing injury possibility.

Lastly, there are a few standout players to keep an eye on - Hunter Morse has been immense in between the pipes for Portland with an astonishing 81 saves and 6 clean sheets; however, Jason Smith of Chattanooga Red Wolves has contributed 11 clean sheets to his team’s campaign with 43 saves.

Juan Carlos Obregón Jr leads the Golden Boot race on 17 goals. His two previous successors, 2024 Lyam Mackinnon (17 goals) and 2023 Trevor Amann (26 goals) were snatched up by Championship teams following their Golden Boot seasons. Obregón has been there, done that, but who’s to say the 26 year old wouldn’t be interested in playing a league above.

Lastly, and this is just a pair of interesting players to watch and an interesting twist to keep an eye on, the previous three seasons the Golden Boot winner has also been the Player of the Year (POTY). However, two players have had statistically fantastic seasons and have contributed above and beyond the call of duty: Charlie Ostrem, who plays left-back, for Union Omaha leads the league with 10 assists and has 52 chances created. Also, Ollie Wright, who does play on the forward line, but has spent time as an attacking mid, has contributed 9 goals from 40 shots, 8 assists and 54 chances created. In my humble opinion, both should be on the short list for POTY.

FULL MATCH GUIDE FOR THE FINAL WEEK OF THE USL LEAGUE ONE REGULAR SEASON

• Portland Hearts of Pine vs AV Alta FC

  • 2:00pm PST / 5:00pm EST at Fitzpatrick Stadium in Portland, ME

• Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison in the Henny Derby

  • 3:00pm PST / 6:00pm EST at City Stadium in Richmond, VA

• Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Westchester SC

  • 4:00pm PST / 7:00pm EST at CHI Memorial Stadium in East Ridge, TN

• FC Naples vs Charlotte Independence

  • 4:00pm PST / 7:00pm EST at Paradise Coast Sports Complex in Naples, FL

• South Georgia Tormenta FC vs Texoma FC

  • 4:00pm PST / 7:00pm EST at Tormenta Stadium in Statesboro, GA

• Union Omaha vs Spokane Velocity FC

  • 4:00pm PST / 7:00pm EST at Werner Park in Papillion, NE

• One Knoxville SC vs Greenville Triumph SC

  • 4:00pm PST / 7:00pm EST at Covenant Health Park in Knoxville, TN

by Joshua Duder